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BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? April was such a lousy auto sales month that every major manufacturer but Chrysler reported a decrease from the same month last year. General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co., Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Corp. all showed declines as automakers released their monthly U. S. sales numbers on Tuesday, but the drop for Toyota Motor Corp. countered a nearly two-year trend of rising sales, sometimes in double digits. Toyota sales, which include the Toyota, Lexus and Scion brands, dropped 4.3 percent to 210,457 last month from 219,965 in April 2006, the company said Tuesday. It was the first year-over-year monthly decline for Toyota since May of 2005. 'This certainly is uncharacteristic of Toyota,' said Joe Barker, senior manager of global sales analysis for CSM Worldwide, an automotive forecasting firm in Northville. 'I would expect them to rebound stron...

Some analysts and homebuilders alike are calling price reductions 'backfired tactics'. In response Homebuilders Are Rethinking Price Reductions. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? When freebies like granite countertops and no-cost closings didn't woo back buyers, homebuilders began trying to outdo one another with bigger and better price cuts. The reductions, builders complain, have sliced into already thin margins. And buyers, fearful their house will depreciate faster than a new car, won't make purchases until prices stabilize. 'If people stop cutting prices, that's actually good,' said David Goldberg, an analyst with UBS Investment Bank. 'If everybody does it, it works. If one builder does it, it doesn't.' Nonetheless Lennar is determined to not only hold out until prices get better, but to keep building homes in the meantime. Unfortunately for Lennar ...

In response to Drowning in Debt: How do we protect ourselves? I received the following Email advice from my friend Heinz:Find a safe bank with a Weiss rating above 200 - a bank that has at least the bulk of deposits covered by its own free capital resources. Thanks Heinz. With that in mind let's now consider Mortgage Mistakes Help Tank NetBank. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Find a safe bank with a Weiss rating above 200 - a bank that has at least the bulk of deposits covered by its own free capital resources. Alpharetta, GA-based NetBank Inc., the first online bank to tank, in part, because of mortgage market missteps, is also the first federally-insured thrift to go because of mortgage issues. NetBank is also the largest federally-insured bank to go under since the Savings and Loan Crisis cost the nation as much as $500 billion beginning decades ago. The event raises red flags for con...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Money market investors staged a dramatic flight to safety, knocking down yields on short-term US government debt in early US trading on Monday, as top Treasury and Federal Reserve officials continued behind-the-scenes efforts to shore up confidence in the credit market. The yield on the one-month Treasury bill fell 160 basis points to 1.34 per cent in early trading. The yield on three-month Treasury bills tumbled to 2.51 per cent, 123 basis points below Friday's close – a sharper fall than during the October 1987 stock market crash. The scramble to obtain government paper at any price is a sign of extreme risk aversion, and suggests the Fed's actions have yet to stabilise sentiment in the credit markets. While conditions elsewhere in the credit markets remained broadly stable on Monday, the big shift in Treasury bill yields encouraged speculation that ...

Over the weekend I received some taunts about how 'great' Black Friday was. Bloomberg reported U. S. Shoppers Spend 19% More on Thanksgiving Weekend. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U. S. shoppers spent 18.9 percent more over the Thanksgiving weekend than last year, kicking off holiday gift buying with purchases of discounted wide-screen televisions and clothes, the National Retail Federation said. Consumers spent an average $360.15 each over the weekend, up from $302.81 a year earlier, the NRF said today in a statement. Fewer people shopped, with about 140 million visiting stores during the four days including Thanksgiving, down from 145 million last year. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. predicted surprisingly weak November sales on Saturday, but a survey of thousands of retail locations pointed to a relatively healthy start to the holiday shopping season. Wal-Mart estim...

I came across yet another blog run by real estate professionals trying to put on a brave face by saying everything is OK. This one is called Rain City Guide and the article in question is called No, Chicken Little, the sky isn’t falling… BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? I came across yet another blog run by real estate professionals trying to put on a brave face by saying everything is OK. A friend of mine that works in a small town bank in Kansas called me in a panic the other day because the officers at the bank were freaking out during a meeting saying that Countrywide was going bankrupt. For them there is concern because Countrywide buys all of their residential loans. Apparently they must have seen some similar version of the story that the local Seattle Times had about the lender’s trading shares nosediving. I contacted a long time lender friend of mine (and 25 year lending veteran) who...

As noted in Thursday’s blog Free Trade? What Free Trade? talk of trade wars are looming. The silliness continued today and the US Senate is set to get tough over the renminbi. The US Senate will vote no later than July on legislation that would slap across-the-board tariffs on imports of Chinese goods unless China agrees to revalue its currency. In the House of Representatives, Duncan Hunter, the powerful Republican chairman of the armed services committee, on Thursday also introduced legislation that would define currency manipulation by a foreign government as an export subsidy. This could then allow the US to offset the subsidy by imposing duties on imports. In a sharp exchange yesterday with John Snow, Treasury secretary, Mr. Schumer charged that 'this administration, on this issue, has had the strength of a wet noodle'.Regi on Silicon Investor writes:This is pure and simple economic blackmail! In fact, it puts self determination of any nation that presents an economic chal...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? The widening fallout in the U. S. mortgage industry has reminded investors of a risk they had forgotten: the fear of risk itself. Corporations are paying higher interest rates on their bonds, some private-equity firms are having trouble raising money to close big purchases, and the stock market has lost 7 percent of its value in less than two weeks — all mainly because of an exodus from risk. “I would characterize it as a loss of excessive risk appetite,' said Ian Lyngen, an interest-rate strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital. 'There is a lot more apprehension about layering on riskier assets.' The meltdown of this comparatively small segment of the U. S. economy is contributing to a much bigger and broader issue: Lenders around the world are growing scared to lend. 'It is making people pull in their tolerance for risk,' said Doug Sandler, Wa...

On Friday, ThyssenKrupp, Europe's 4th largest steel maker said that it would cut steel production by 10% to 'maintain prices' at current levels, as imports and inventories of the metal increased since the beginning of the year. Mish says 'Fat Chance'.Let's take a look:India:India fires up steel production. India's iron and steel industry seems poised to double its production in five years in response to an anticipated sharp rise in domestic demand. 'Essar Steel is India's largest exporter for flat products and has been so for the last five year,' says Essar boss Prashant Ruia. 'We continue to maintain 30% to 40% export of all our products. Basically we are going from 3 million tonnes to 3.5 million tonnes over the next two years. Because of the vast reserves of iron ore and coal, many believe India has the potential to become one of the leading steel producers in the world', he says. China:China is now a major player in steel production. ...

Like it or not (and the NAR doesn't like it one bit) the business of buying and selling a home is changing. While a slowdown in home sales may be cyclical, changes in the nature of how people buy and sell homes is going to be permanent. These changes will dramatically affect the current real estate commission structure and who benefits. I had the pleasure of talking to Joseph Fox, CEO of both BuySide Realty and its sister company IggysHouse about the nature of these changes. Let's take a look at each side of the transaction. The Buy SideIn the typical relationship at present, a person finds a home with or without the help of a Realtor, makes an offer, and commissions on the sale are split between the buyer's agent and seller's agent. Those commissions are usually in the 5-6% range. Historically the split has been 50-50 between the buyer's agent and seller's agent but given the current slowdown the buyer's agent now gets as much as 4% of 6% commission. The qu...

Democrats, led by Hillary stepped up to the plate today in an attempt to buy more votes than the Republicans can in the mid-term elections. This may sound like the start of a political post but it goes well beyond that. I am of course talking about budget deficits, the US dollar, 'affordable housing', and long term problems with Social Security and Medicaid. Both parties act as if there are no consequences to wasting trillions of dollars in the present while promising trillions more down the road. We do not have the money now, nor will we have it in the future. Yet no one from either party seems to care. The Bush Administration blew a half trillion dollars in a war that should not have been fought and arguably produced negative benefits for both the US and Iraq (and most likely the rest of the world too). The amount of money we are wasting on homeland security is staggering as well. Does anyone feel more secure? We are also building bridges to nowhere in Alaska. We waste tons o...

Two days ago in Mass Layoffs Soar I proposed 'One of these months there is going to be a massive 'unexpected' downward jobs revision. More than likely that will be used as an excuse by the Fed to cut (or further cut) rates. It won't help.'So Soon? The August BLS Employment Situation Report shows that 'One of these months' has already arrived. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? One of these months there is going to be a massive 'unexpected' downward jobs revision. More than likely that will be used as an excuse by the Fed to cut (or further cut) rates. It won't help. Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-4,000) in August, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U. S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the last 3 months, total payroll employment changes have averaged 44,000 per month an...

The US department of transportation (DOT) ruled on Dec 27th that the UK is a security risk and therefore British owned Virgin America Airlines is not allowed to fly within the US between San Francisco and New York. How flights originating in the US to other US destinations in the US posed security risks to the US was of course not explained (probably because the idea is ridiculous). They did not actually say 'security risk' but what else could a law requiring 75% US ownership to fly within the US mean? The expressed concern was over 'foreign ownership'.Bloomberg picked up the story in Virgin America's Bid to Start Flights Denied by U. S.

As of 4/14/2006 Acoustic Home Loans is no longer in business. Acoustic will not accept new loan submissions after 4/13/2006 however, we will continue to process loans that are in approved status or better. Applications received after 4/13/2006 and loans that are not in approved status or better will be returned to the broker. If you are a broker with a loan in process, a borrower who has a loan with Acoustic, or the media please call our main number at 866.226.8784 and you will be directed to the appropriate person. Hmmm. It seems the industry's first and only 'Guaranteed Broker Contract' is no longer guaranteed. Acoustic was the 27th-largest nonprime wholesale originator in the nation. Rest assured many more 'guarantees' will be broken in the upcoming months. Mike Shedlock / Mishhttp://globaleconomicanalysis. blogspot. com/

Inquiring minds just might be asking 'Where's the Value?'I can't blame them either. Many who were recently 'Seeking Alpha' (which by the way drove down risk premiums across nearly every asset class), are now concerned more about Safety and less about Alpha. Things have dramatically changed in one month flat. Let's call this sudden change in sentiment 'Seeking Value'.So where's the value? That's clearly a good question so let's explore some potential answers. The cynical might suggest 'There's no value anywhere' and while I can certainly make a case for that, that does not give any hints whatsoever about what to do or where to go. So let's change the question to 'Where's the Relative Value?' That is clearly more fertile ground for intelligent discussion. Some might see the answer in energy, others tech stocks like Broadcom (BRCM), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG) or eBay (EBAY) as referenced in 21 Bullish Predictions...

Stephen Roach is writing about a Wake-Up Call for Central Banking. Perhaps he has himself waken up from some kind of stupor when he suddenly turned bullish on the global economy right at the market top a couple weeks ago. Let's tune in. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? . Perhaps he has himself waken up from some kind of stupor when he suddenly turned bullish on the global economy right at the market top a couple weeks ago. Let's tune in. I worry increasingly that history will not treat the recent record of central banking kindly. Inflation may well have been conquered — a conclusion financial markets are actively debating again — but that was yesterday's battle. Over the past six years, monetary authorities have turned the liquidity spigot wide open. This has given rise to an endless string of asset bubbles — from equities to bonds to property to risky assets (emerging markets and...

Years of reckless spending have finally caught up to the State of California, forcing Schwarzenegger To 'Declare Fiscal Emergency'. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said Friday he will declare a 'fiscal emergency' in January to give him and the Legislature more power to deal with the state's growing deficit. The shortfall is not $10 billion, but more than $14 billion -- a 40 percent jump that would put it in orbit with some of the state's worst fiscal crisis, those who have met with him said. A fiscal emergency would trigger a special session and force lawmakers and the governor to begin addressing the shortfall within 45 days. 'What we have to do is fix the budget system. The system itself needs to be fixed, and I think that this is a good year, this coming year, to fix it,' Schwarzenegger said in Long Beach, where he was promoting h...

Stephen Roach had a nice article today called The Handover Fallacy. Point by point Roach dismisses the idea that there is going to be a smooth transition from US consumer spending to spending elsewhere that will drive the world economy forward. I do not buy that idea and neither does Roach. Let's tune in. Fallacy #1 - The Capex HandoverRoach:The capex handover is at the top of everyone’s list these days. That’s especially the case with respect to the US economy. There is a presumption that consumer fatigue is about to give way to support from the business sector. Awash in record cash flow and profitability, the wherewithal of Corporate America to spend on new plant, software, and equipment has never been greater. And so, there is hope that the baton of economic leadership is likely to be passed from consumption to capex -- a seamless transition that could well lead to another upside surprise for US economic growth. The anemic pace of consumer demand in the final period of 2005 was ...

Someone claiming to be a 'consumer advocate' told the Senate Banking Committee that to make things 'fair', There should be an annual fee on credit cards for those that do not carry a balance. Let's take a look at the twisted logic: BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? In a Senate hearing targeting credit card practices, one consumer advocate suggests an annual fee might lighten the load on those who pay high penalties. In most instances today, it would be silly to pay an annual fee for a credit card simply because most cards don't have them anymore. But in a Senate Banking Committee hearing examining credit card practices this week, one consumer advocate suggested those who pay their balances in full every month (about half of all cardholders) should pay a small annual fee to credit card companies. Those who carry balances on which they pay interest and fees are subsidizin...

2006-07-28Today's Thought of the Day comes from John Succo at Minyanville. The CEO of DOW was on financial TV last month telling the world how great things were and how positive he was on the company. Yesterday the stock blew up. We never listen to what people say. We don't listen to Ben Bernanke. No one can tell you anything about the future. You can have an understanding of the state of things, but not how people will react to that state. Trends are uncertain and even CEOs can't tell you much about them. Trends in products that have wide profit margins (insurance) can change overnight trends on products with small profit margins (toothpaste) are more stable, but the companies are more levered. We only listen to numbers. The sooner people understand this the sooner they will stop losing money trading stocks. Everyone has an agenda. Numbers do not: people can make the presentation of numbers false, but they cannot make the numbers themselves lie. So the next time any media ...

BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? Attempts to recoup about $64 million in taxpayer money invested by former Jefferson County Treasurer Mark Paschall shortly before he left office have come up with nothing. Griffin hasn't heard from Capital Securities of America, an Ohio-based firm that brokered what state officials say are improper investments. Griffin has sent two letters to the firm - one in January and one early this month - demanding it repurchase the securities. Colorado Treasurer Cary Kennedy also notified Capital Securities in a June 6 letter that state law requires the repurchase of the improper securities within one business day of the demand letter from the county. Griffin said her office is closely watching the market for an upswing so the securities can be sold at the best possible rate. 'If there is any chance where we can look good,' Griffin said, 'we're going...