Two days ago in Mass Layoffs Soar I proposed 'One of these...

Two days ago in Mass Layoffs Soar I proposed 'One of these months there is going to be a massive 'unexpected' downward jobs revision. More than likely that will be used as an excuse by the Fed to cut (or further cut) rates. It won't help.'So Soon? The August BLS Employment Situation Report shows that 'One of these months' has already arrived. BEA 4th Quarter GDP 1st Estimate 0.7% Q&A: Why Did GDPNow Rise After Durable Goods? When are Construction Revisions Coming? One of these months there is going to be a massive 'unexpected' downward jobs revision. More than likely that will be used as an excuse by the Fed to cut (or further cut) rates. It won't help. Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-4,000) in August, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U. S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the last 3 months, total payroll employment changes have averaged 44,000 per month and private sector employment changes have averaged 72,000 per month (as revised). In August, employment in manufacturing, construction, and local government education declined, while job growth continued in health care and food services. How does the BLS hold the unemployment rate low with such pathetic numbers? The answer is of course the participation rate. In August, the civilian labor force edged down to 152.9 million, and the labor force participation rate decreased to 65.8 percent. The declines were largely due to a drop in labor force participation among teenagers their participation rate fell to 39.7 percent. The unemployment rates is based on the Household Survey. Notice how 340,000 civilian jobs were lost and total employment fell by 316,000 jobs, but magically unemployment The establishment data (actual payroll tax data) shows 4,000 jobs were lost in August. The number is actually far weaker than that. So let's take a look. A whopping 64,000 goods producing jobs were lost. Making up that total was the loss of 46,000 manufacturing jobs and 22,000 construction jobs. As bad as that jobs report was, and it is certainly extremely bad, it would have looked even worse had the BLS Moonbats been inactive. The moonbats were anything but inactive. is reporting 149+- Mortgage lender Implosion, and housing activity falling like a rock, the good folks at the BLS with their 'model' are reporting more jobs gained due to the birth of businesses than lost to the those going out of business. The BLS has shown a net gain of jobs added to new businesses in both construction and financial activities seven consecutive months from February through August. And economists who by the way were expecting a creation of 120,000+- payroll jobs this month (not a loss of 4,000 as reported) will no doubt be surprised again when still more massive downward revisions come. Please note that one cannot subtract 120,000 birth/death jobs from the total and conclude 124,000 jobs were lost due to the fact that one set of numbers is seasonally adjusted and the other is not. Nonetheless numbers are indeed far worse than appears at first glance if one takes into account ' The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms affiliated with the author(s). The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.